Will November 2025 become as bad for Bitcoin as it was in 2018?

The end of a Bitcoin bull run is quite brutal for crypto newbies. Given the amount of institutional money that’s been pumped into the crypto market since 2024, analysts are hoping things will be different this time. But if the end of the 2024-2025 Bitcoin bull run is similar to the 2017-2018 one, this month’s drop has only begun.

November

Looking at Bitcoin’s historical returns, the (likely) end of the 2024-2025 Bitcoin bull run (if this is it) so far looks very similar to the 2017-2018 one.

In 2017, Bitcoin rose 150% above its previous all-time high before correcting by some 40%. Similarly, during the 2020-2021 bull run, Bitcoin gained 120% and later fell 35%. Each successive bull run is slightly smaller than the previous one.

If we apply that logic and compare it to November 2018, we still have a 14% drop to go. At the time of writing, Bitcoin has had a negative month of November, with a drop of around 23%. To match 2018 however, that would need to become a drop of 37%. And December would then follow with a drop of (only) 5%.

Hence, we still have some pain ahead of us.