Bitcoin jumps above $100k again, Fed and Jobs numbers will decide whether it rises or falls in the next few days

Bitcoin traded above $100,000 again yesterday as it jumped at the opening of the American stock market, mostly thanks to positive sentiment among investors who had returned from holiday and a rumor that the ‘Trump tariffs’ might not be as high as feared. Crypto-related stocks such as Coinbase and MicroStrategy also rose sharply.

Although most investors assume that Bitcoin will easily break its record again before the summer thanks to the new Trump administration in the United States, we are looking at the short term.

Trump will be sworn in on January 20, so that’s still two weeks to go. In the following days, we look forward to jobs data and Fed notes from those same United States which can determine the direction of Bitcoin.

December

Three weeks ago, on December 17, 2024, Bitcoin recorded its highest price yet on various crypto platforms. Intraday, as much as $108,000 was paid for one Bitcoin. The party ended the next day, when the Federal Reserve announced that they would indeed cut rates by a quarter point (as investors expected), but would do so less often in 2025 (which was a surprise). In the week that followed, Bitcoin fell to $90,000 and tech stocks sold off.

Ever since then, Bitcoin has been trapped in a trading band with support around $90,000 and resistance above $105,000.

Jobs

Tomorrow, the Fed minutes from that December meeting will be released and analysts will be able to see what was the Federal Reserve’s strategy that led to that decision. Suppose one understands from this that an overwhelming majority of the Fed is afraid of rising inflation, then it will take a few more years before interest rates can return to zero (which would be bad news for Bitcoin). Suppose it turns out that half of the Fed is in favor of more rate cuts in 2025 and half are against, then there could be further rate cuts if the US economy does very well under Trump (good news for Bitcoin).

The jobs data, which will also be announced tomorrow, can influence Bitcoin’s price just as well. Suppose that more jobs were added than analysts expected, then the Fed may decide that interest rates can remain high for a longer period of time since the economy is not really in need of an interest rate cut (bad news for Bitcoin). If there are fewer new jobs, this could give the Fed a boost to cut rates faster (good news for Bitcoin).

It all depends on data for the moment.