Bitcoin Historically Hates September

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As Bitcoin continues its battle with the $10k level today, analysts claim that no one should be surprised by the timing of the current correction because September and crypto have a tough love affair. Others say that referring to the old stock market adage of  “sell in May and go away” would have made sure you missed out on all of the altcoin and DeFi gains.

As to Bitcoin itself, sell in May would have meant, if you waited till the halving at least, at a level of around $10k, so that one sure seems correct. Let’s have a closer look.

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Greed versus fear

The wild swings of the crypto market are only for seasoned investors or those who can bear the stomach to deal with great losses, it is often claimed.

Tesla stock sinks into bear market https://t.co/aGcm380XrO

— Daviman Financial LLC (@DavimanL) September 4, 2020

Whereas Tesla has officially entered bear territory after dropping 20% from it’s peak level in only a few days, Bitcoin investors saw the whiplash and said: “Meh, seen that before”.

In fact, what the stock market calls a bear market for some of their stellar companies, the crypto market refers to it as a shakeout, as 20% drops are nothing new for them.

From Extreme greed to fear in a day.
That went rather quick.

This really feels like a massive shakeout.$BTC pic.twitter.com/Lcv3SKsSom

— Byzantine General (@ByzGeneral) September 4, 2020

As some on Twitter commented, the Bitcoin fear and greed index swung from one side to the other in just a day, whereas the Nasdaq needs at least three or four trading sessions to do that.

September status

However, there is a point to make for Bitcoin’s acclaimed tough love for the month of September.

Bitcoin really hates September pic.twitter.com/Bk07ACRINE

— Avi IS RIGHT (@AviFelman) September 4, 2020

Historical trading patterns show that September has turned out negative for Bitcoin in the past four years, only to be surpassed by the month of March where the last six years have all been negative.

Of course we all remember what happened in 11-12 March of this year when the most beloved cryptocoin dropped from $10k all the way down to $3.6k, a day forever marked as “Black Thursday”.

This time round, the omens were there as well as already on 19 August, CryptoQuant CEO Ki Young Ju stated that:

People keep worrying about the great sell-off like March, but exchanges don’t have as many idle Bitcoins (waiting to be sold) as that day.

That sure is a quote that has since come back to haunt him.

In the spring, it was NSA whistleblower Edward Snowden who called the bottom, stating that Bitcoin finally looked cheap again. The time might have come to check once again when Edward will sound his Bitcoin opinions and end this wild ride. Or… it just might be a shake off indeed.

We’ll wait and see.