Bitcoin has 30 days to find direction or the bull run ends

Consolidation is the term used in trading when an asset is trapped in a specific trading range. For Bitcoin, this range has been set between $100,000 and $125,000 for several months now (ever since the beginning of June, to be clear). That seems like a very wide range, but given Bitcoin’s historical volatility, that definitely counts as consolidation.

Bullrun

Bitcoin’s current bull run began in late 2022, or so it is generally assumed, around the time of the demise of FTX.

At that moment, the largest digital currency dropped to a value of $16,000. Over the following six months, it steadily rose again, but it wasn’t until the summer of 2023 and BlackRock’s announcement that they intended to launch a Bitcoin ETF that crypto really took off again.

In January 2024, Bitcoin ETFs were allowed in the United States, and the Boomer generation also joined in as investors. This also brought in a significant amount of institutional money.

When Donald Trump won the US presidential election in November 2024, Bitcoin broke through the magical $100,000 barrier for the first time. A few days ago, it set a new all-time high of $125,000.

History

However, historically, Bitcoin bull markets peak around 1,060 to 1,100 days after significant lows, which would suggest the end of this cycle would occur sometime between late October and mid-November 2025, at least if history holds true.

Given Bitcoin’s consolidation in recent months, this means we should normally see a strong move within the month, but it’s still unclear whether that will be upwards (a continuation of the bull run) or downwards (the end of the bull run).

Exciting.