Bitcoin bottom or Bitcoin bounce - Buy the dip or wait it out?

In a week’s time, Bitcoin has dropped by some 10%. Calculated since the temporary top of $49,000, one could even argue that yesterday evening (Central European Time) we touched a 20% low since that weekly high, as Bitcoin momentarily touched $40k then. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading at $41,6k.

The euphoria over last week’s Bitcoin ETF (exchange traded fund) approval has given way to concerns about the global economy and geopolitical developments that are also pushing stock markets lower (at least in Europe and Asia, in the US they were boosted by new economic data and were able to hit a new high, although worries remain).

So where do we go from here?

#Bitcoin past year: pic.twitter.com/9JIuEP35TG

— Matthew Hyland (@MatthewHyland_) January 20, 2024

Iran and Pakistan

On the 9th of January I stated:

If the American stock market watchdog SEC approves one of the many ETF applications tomorrow, there will be two options for the price of the largest digital currency in the short term. Either it falls during a so-called ‘sell the news’ crash to a level of (probably) $38,000, where there is a lot of support, or it immediately rises to $50,000.

Perhaps we’re there already for #Bitcoin, but it seems likely that we’ll test lower before we can have a reversal back up.

My personal interest is between $36-40K to be accumulating more into Bitcoin.

The range remains defined. pic.twitter.com/QADxVCCzUY

— Michaël van de Poppe (@CryptoMichNL) January 19, 2024

So we first got the rise to $49,000 (because of the sudden euphoria) and are now on the decline to find support, not helped by this week’s geopolitical stories (just think of the bad economic news coming out of China, Trump’s victory in Iowa and the possible war between Iran and Pakistan, although I don’t think that will actually happen).

As Wall Street is also investing in Bitcoin, the correlation of the largest digital currency with global stock market exchanges has only grown, and so Bitcoin has a hard time reaching higher levels whenever global stock markets are under pressure and when geopolitical conditions are not optimal.

Bitcoin Price Update.
Still bullish?

Bit longer tahn 3mins today… https://t.co/cwHPmqXier Powered by @_WOO_X

— Ed_NL (@Crypto_Ed_NL) January 19, 2024

But partly due to the knowledge that we will have a halving later this year, there is a lot of support for Bitcoin at certain levels.

Normally (also according to many analysts) we will look for temporary support between $38,000 and $40,000 before a ‘bounce’ starts, but of course a lot also depends on what happens in other countries (especially in the current wars).

Sideline is probably best but know that a bounce could erupt at any moment. Has that bounce started yesterday? I await confirmation of the candles before making a move. Watch out for high volume and a big step up. Happy trading.