Winners and losers after six weeks of war in Iran

About a month ago, I compiled an overview of the winners and losers of this new geopolitical conflict. Bitcoin featured very prominently among the list of winners back then, proving once again that the largest cryptocurrency usually weathers geopolitical developments quite easily. A month later, that is still the case. We also have a surprising new loser.

Winners: oil, taco-traders and Bitcoin

Bitcoin is now up about 20% compared to the absolute low reached in February (around $60,000) and has gained very quickly since the announcement of the ceasefire between Iran and the United States. Crypto winter seems to be over, although we still need a third month of confirmation before this is technically the case.

Oil also continues to perform very well with a gain of around 30%. Unfortunately, we are all feeling this at the pump.

The final group consists of Wall Street investors who ‘buy the dip’ whenever Trump seeks an off-ramp and the markets have already been down for several weeks. These so-called TACO traders (Trump always chickens out) are the big winners of the last two years.

Losers: luxury goods

Luxury goods are a surprising new loser of the war. While gold and Asian stock markets were the losers in the short term, LVMH and Hermès are the losers in the long term.

Customers in the Middle East normally spend lavishly, but not right now. So, when missiles are hovering over Dubai, it turns out that Louis Vuitton is actually suffering the most.