Will we get a real ‘crypto winter’ in 2026?

Although it was Donald Trump who promised last year to make America the “crypto capital of the world” (which allowed us to surpass $100,000 for the first time), it was also Donald Trump who caused a flash crash on October 10th, sending us back below $100,000. Price targets between $150,000 and $250,000 now seem a long way off, and a new “crypto winter” is more likely. But will it arrive in 2026 already?

Correlation

Since the beginning of October, the price of Bitcoin has fallen by around 25%, while Ethereum has dropped by about a third. For Wall Street, this would signal a bear market, but in the crypto world, we’re used to more than this. However, the current predictions for Bitcoin are almost entirely negative for next year.

This is also due to the increasing correlation with tech stocks and the predictive power of the cryptocurrency market. If stock markets are expected to fall, the crypto market usually falls earlier and more sharply.

80%

According to analysts from BlackRock and JPMorgan, both companies that believe in crypto and have heavily invested in it in 2024 and 2025, it won’t be that bad.

After all, in crypto declines are only considered “winter” when Bitcoin is down 70% to 80% from its all-time high. In 2021, its highest level was around $70,000, and after FTX went bankrupt in November 2022, we briefly touched a low of $15,000.

Given that the largest digital currency is currently down about 25% from its all-time high, we’re still a long way off. Prepare yourself if winter truly arrives.