Why the post-halving cycle will be different for Bitcoin in 2026

2025 is drawing to a close, and it will likely be a negative year for Bitcoin, although the annualized decline will be less than 10%. The Whales are primarily blamed for this yearly loss. However, 2026 offers a silver lining, as the normal post-halving cycle could play out completely different due to a large influx of institutional money.

Historically, Bitcoin (due to the halving effect) goes through a four-year cycle, with two periods of growth, one period of near-stagnation, and one period of decline. This latter period is known as a crypto “winter.” In 2014, we saw a 50% decline (after a 5,000% increase in 2013), 2018 saw a 72% decline, and in 2022, another 62% decline. Now, we are on the eve of 2026, and we would normally be counting down to the start of the next “crypto winter.”

Boomers

However, analysts say that the arrival of so many institutional investors since 2024 has made this normal cycle unreliable. They interpret the higher correlation between the Nasdaq and Bitcoin as a particularly strong signal. Correlation between a particular exchange and Bitcoin is measured from -1 to 1, with values ​​above zero indicating a positive correlation. The average correlation this year was 0.52, up from 0.23 in 2024, and this is entirely due to the arrival of ‘boomer’ money since 2024.

Given that it was primarily the Whales (investors with more than 1,000 Bitcoins who have been investing in crypto for years) who sold in 2025, Wall Street analysts therefore expect a very short winter dip, followed by a new price record being set during the summer of 2026. I certainly hope they’re right.