Where’s the Bitcoin bottom in 2026?

Now that the first half of the year is almost over, we can state with near certainty that the second quarter did not herald the end of ‘crypto winter’. The question that thus remains is: where is the bottom? To what level must Bitcoin fall before it becomes attractive again for Wall Street companies to swoop in and buy?

Lost

For the first time in a long time, more than 50% of Bitcoin hodlers are facing a loss. Note, this does not mean that all investors are facing a loss, as approximately 10% of all Bitcoins mined so far are considered ‘lost’. These are the Bitcoins of individuals who have lost their hard drive or no longer know their password.

Nevertheless, it is a remarkable data point, and thanks to this knowledge, we can compare it to the previous ‘crypto winters’.

During those previous bear markets, namely those of 2011, 2018, and 2022, the price of Bitcoin reached a low about 30 days after the 50% mark was first crossed.

A final sell-off of approximately 15% to 25% below this threshold level preceded each low. This final downward movement then puts more than 60% of all Bitcoin holders at a loss, after which ‘capitulation’ follows and buyers finally enter the market again.

If true, that would mean the bottom would be at around $45,000.