What Do Previous Bitcoin Rallies Teach Us About Where 2021 Price Will End?

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Bitcoin has had quite the year again. From a value of $20,000 at the beginning of the year it rose all the way up to $64,000 by end of April. Then followed the Chinese ban, the ESG crowd and an attack by classic finance.

Two months later it had retraced by some 50% and world media was sure it was bound to crash. As we enter the final stages of the year, Bitcoin has once again put a new all-time high on the board.

Historical analysis now indicates that Bitcoin’s next major bearish correction (and yes, there will be one) will not follow the classic pattern of an 80% retracement from its peak. Based on historical data, its magnitude will theoretically be smaller than the previous one.

Epic analysis on #Bitcoin https://t.co/zgjN4SWNxd

— The Wolf Of All Streets (@scottmelker) October 21, 2021

The price of Bitcoin recorded sharp declines to more than 83% between 2013 and 2015, and between 2017 and 2018, after reaching an all-time high of $ 1,111 and $ 20,089 respectively at the time.

The bull runs that took place in 2019-2020 and 2020-2021 were followed by major corrections of respectively 61% and 54% from the peak, showing that the retracement after each new all time high tends to reduce.

Bitcoin volatility: smaller post-halving rises and falls

But if the magnitude of declines tends to decrease over time, so would the magnitude of Bitcoin price rises. According to the principles of Stock-to-flow model and by studying the impact of successive halvings on the explosion in the price of Bitcoin, one could theoretically claim that Bitcoin would thus reach $100k before the end of the year, giving everybody who gets in now another 30% gain. Then again, don’t take our word for it, but always do your own research.

MARK MY WORDS: #Bitcoin will be trading for more than $100’000 at least once before December 2021!

Save this tweet and come back when it’s time…

— sunnydecree (@sunnydecree) July 23, 2020

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