US office loans surpass 2008 financial crisis levels

Problems in the US commercial real estate market are mounting. The delinquency rate for office properties within Commercial Mortgage-Backed Securities, or CMBS, has risen to 12% in August. That puts it at the second-highest level ever. Only January 2026 was higher, at 12.3%. Strikingly, the current level is even above the peak reached after the 2008 financial crisis.

Office loan delinquencies climb to 12%

According to data shared by The Kobeissi Letter, the CMBS delinquency rate for office loans rose by 9 basis points in August to exactly 12%.

That means the market is once again close to the record of 12.3% from January. At the start of 2023, the rate was still around six times lower.

The comparison with the financial crisis makes the current situation even more striking. After the 2008 crisis, the office loan delinquency rate peaked at around 10.8%. The current level of 12% is therefore clearly above that.

CMBS are financial products that pool commercial real estate loans. Problems with the underlying loans can therefore affect not only property owners but also investors with exposure to these products.

Offices are not the only problem

The problems are not limited to office buildings. The overall delinquency rate for US CMBS loans is climbing to 7.9%, according to Kobeissi.

Since 2022, this rate has more than doubled. At 7.9%, it reaches its highest level since early 2021. Excluding the exceptional period during the coronavirus pandemic, it is even the highest level in around thirteen years.

The Bloomberg chart, based on data from Trepp, clearly shows how exceptional the situation for offices is. Delinquencies fell for years after the financial crisis, but from 2023 onwards they began to rise particularly quickly.

The gap between offices and the broader commercial real estate market is now especially wide.

US offices remain under pressure

The fact that office loans are being hit harder makes this category a key focus within the US real estate market. With a delinquency rate of 12%, the sector is now above the level reached after the 2008 financial crisis.

At the same time, the overall CMBS figure of 7.9% is also at a historically high level outside the pandemic period.

The coming months will therefore be important. The record for office loans, at 12.3%, is only 0.3 percentage points above the current level.

If the increase continues, the office loan delinquency rate could soon set a new record. In any case, the figures show that the problems in US commercial real estate, and particularly in offices, are still not over.