Prediction markets claim Bitcoin will drop during summer

Bitcoin dropped from $75k to $65k in the past week, and panic is creeping in among short-term investors. While more experienced crypto fans are used to bear markets like this, it takes some getting used to for those who entered above a price of $100k (virtually the entire 2025). Market forecasters believe we will drop further before we can look upwards again.

Negative

On prediction site Kalshi, investors estimate the chance that the Bitcoin price will drop below $55k this year at 66%, while 50% of them think a drop to below $50k is possible.

A very popular bet on the site shows that many even think the price could drop below $40k, although that would likely cause a panic reaction on Wall Street as well.

Traders on competitor Polymarket place similar bets for Bitcoin, and the sentiment there is also very negative.

Analysts believe Bitcoin is currently losing the battle for investor attention to AI and tech stocks and companies that issue stablecoins.

The downward pressure on Bitcoin is therefore occurring despite the fact that US stock markets continue to reach record highs.

Others, however, say that Wall Street funds are currently withdrawing their money from Bitcoin in order to invest it in the upcoming IPOs of OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX.