Oil rises fast, Bitcoin remains stable

After financial markets entered the weekend relatively calmly, geopolitical turmoil returned on Monday with the conflict between Iran and the United States flaring up again. Oil prices are surging once more, driving down the value of risk assets such as crypto and tech stocks. After a moment of hesitation, markets stabilized again.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $62,500.

As a result, Bitcoin remains trapped in the trading range between $60,000 and $65,000.

If the Iran war causes an oil price of around 100 dollars again, a sharp correction of the financial markets is quite possible. That is bad news for Bitcoin.

4-year cycle

The largest digital currency is increasingly following the well-known four-year cycle (where the year following a halving is a bull year and the third year is a “crypto winter”), leading analysts to calculate an “investable low.”

That low is expected to occur in September, or October at the latest, of this year, after which a new rally could begin.

However, it remains unclear for now whether the February low, a level we are currently trading close to again, will be broken before that happens.

The potential bursting of an AI bubble during the summer months would likely drag almost everything down, including Bitcoin.