Not Everyone Is Buying the Bitcoin Rally: Bearish Strategists Warn of One More Steep Drop

Bitcoin has shot from around $64.000 to above $76.000 in a short space of time, and sentiment is turning at remarkable speed. Even so, not everyone sees this as the definitive end of the weak market. One Reddit user argues that the current recovery could be an intermediate phase, with possibly one more sharp decline before Bitcoin truly forms a bottom.

Rally feels too narrow, according to critic

The user points out that Bitcoin, gold and silver are all reacting strongly at the same time to the recent debt buyback operation by the US Treasury. Equities, he says, are moving far less convincingly.

That makes him doubt whether this is truly a broad risk-on move. His reasoning is that a genuine return of liquidity would normally be visible more clearly in the stock market as well.

In this bearish view, Bitcoin’s rise could therefore be partly technical or liquidity-driven, without the whole market having already turned sustainably.

Institutional inflows are strong, but timing remains uncertain

At the same time, the Reddit user acknowledges that there are genuinely positive signals beneath the surface. Spot Bitcoin ETFs, he says, have swung from outflows to roughly $626 million in inflows over four trading days, with BlackRock leading the way.

That is happening while the Fear & Greed Index still sits around 25, signalling Extreme Fear. Whales, too, are said to have been quietly accumulating Bitcoin in recent weeks before the price began to react.

It is precisely this pattern that makes the situation double-edged, in his view. The underlying demand appears to be strengthening, but that does not automatically mean Bitcoin will continue to rise in a straight line from here.

Possibly one more flush first

The bearish core of his argument is that retail investors become too quickly convinced that the bottom is in after the first few strong green candles. He argues that this cycle has already shown a similar pattern several times: fear, accumulation by larger players, a sharp rebound, FOMO among retail, and then one final decline.

He also points to earlier panic around Strategy, where the stock in his view temporarily diverged sharply from the value of the Bitcoin on the balance sheet. In this view, such extreme divergences can later be corrected severely.

The conclusion, then, is not that the Bitcoin rally is entirely fake. On the contrary, the user sees genuine institutional demand and whale accumulation. His point is above all that the market may be cheering too early.

After the rise towards $76.000, a scenario in which Bitcoin first makes a sharp correction therefore remains firmly on the table, according to this bearish view.