NFL sounds alarm: is crypto betting site Kalshi gambling with its own future?

The prediction platform Kalshi is coming under growing pressure in the United States. What began as an innovative marketplace where users can speculate on the outcome of events is turning into a legal and political minefield. Now even the powerful National Football League (NFL) has entered the fray, amid fears that the enormous sums wagered through the platform could ultimately lead to match-fixing.

Kalshi allows users to buy contracts that pay out when a particular event occurs. These can range from elections and economic data to sports matches. Although the concept closely resembles traditional gambling, Kalshi presents itself as a marketplace for financial contracts. That legal distinction is at the heart of an increasingly bitter confrontation with regulators and several US states.

Prediction markets

The NFL warns that the billions of dollars now circulating in such prediction markets pose a risk to the integrity of sport. When enormous sums depend on the performance of individual players or specific events during a game, the temptation to influence players, referees or others involved grows, according to the league.

Those concerns do not come out of nowhere. Kalshi has seen explosive growth in recent months. On the opening Sunday of the new NFL season, an estimated $3.3 billion in contracts were traded. NFL-related predictions alone accounted for about $1.8 billion.

In addition, the platform is increasingly being mentioned in high-profile controversies. Users were recently able to bet on who would become the new White House press secretary and even on details from political speeches. Critics are asking where the line lies between prediction markets and pure speculation.

With a possible battle before the US Supreme Court on the horizon, Kalshi appears to be in an increasingly tight spot. The question is no longer whether the platform is under fire, but whether its current business model will survive the legal storm.