Is volatility back with a vengeance for stocks and Bitcoin?

This week’s economic calendar (we are still in August) looks very busy and American all of a sudden. It comes just after we closed out the worst week for crypto since the fall of FTX last year. The question that is therefore on everyone’s lips is the following: is volatility back for crypto markets (and stock exchanges) or are we going to calmly enter September?

Consolidation

In the past few days, the damage to Bitcoin has been contained since last week’s 10% crash. There are already rumors that we will see consolidation in the coming weeks as that seems to be the trend of the year. No steady moves down or up, simply crashes and bullruns that last only a day or so.

ALL EYES ON JACKSON HOLE THIS WEEK (FRIDAY)🚨

LAST YEAR JEROME POWELL NUKED MARKETS WITH HIS RHETORIC, WHICH COMBINED WITH A HISTORICAL BAD MONTH FOR STOCKS (SEPTEMBER), MADE THE S&P 500 DROP ALMOST 20% PEAK TO TROUGH!

WHAT DO YOU THINK POWELL WILL DO/SAY THIS YEAR?👀 pic.twitter.com/4Rw703EbGT

— BACH (@MortensenBach) August 20, 2023

However, market data coming out this week could throw a spanner in the works for Bitcoin and the stock exchanges as Jackson Hole’s annual high mass begins.

Wyoming

For those who don’t know, Jackson Hole is a small town in the US state of Wyoming where every year the largest central bankers (US, EU, UK and Canada) have a meeting, take a look at interest rates and inflation rates and then give speeches about the whole thing.

Last year, Jackson Hole became known for coinciding with the election of Liz Truss as British Prime Minister. Inflation rates for the United States and Europe were then much higher than now and interest rates much lower.

Bitcoin was trading around $22k at the time, moving lower towards the end of the month as economic doomsdays were being predicted from Jackson Hole.

Key Events This Week:

1. Existing Home Sales data - Tuesday

2. US Services PMI data - Wednesday

3. New Home Sales data - Wednesday

4. Core Durable Goods data - Thursday

5. Initial Jobless Claims - Thursday

6. Fed Chair Powell Speaks - Friday

Volatility is officially back.

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) August 20, 2023

At the end of this week, on Friday, Jerome Powell, the central banker of the United States, will deliver a long-awaited speech. At that moment, we will find out whether interest rates in his country will remain high for a long time or whether he thinks it is time to lower them. Don’t expect too much movement until then, but a lot of movement from then on.

So is volatility back? Not sure, but if Powell delivers a bad speech, then yes.