Geopolitical outlook has changed completely, and so Bitcoin can rise again

Bitcoin had been struggling for a few months, but seems to have suddenly found its way back up after the failed assassination attempt on former President Donald Trump of the past weekend. Why has Bitcoin’s outlook changed and how will this continue? We explain briefly what you can expect next.

Vice-President

You’ve probably seen a lot of Trump memes and heard conspiracy theories in the past few days. I think the most important question is this: what if the shooter hadn’t missed?

Well, then normally Trump’s choice for Vice President (JD Vance) would have taken over the job, he would win the election with an overwhelming majority, and he would have carried out Trump’s plans for his second term with probably a large majority in Congress and the Senate. Voters are emotional in these instances, of course.

It is also likely that Bitcoin would then be a lot higher than it is now because investors are looking a few months ahead.  And that is due to the ‘Trump trade’.

We already talked about that phenomenon some 10 days ago.

Trump-trade

Investors are now preparing for a second presidency of Donald Trump, who now sees his lead over Biden becoming a true ‘landslide’. At the moment, in the first days after the attack, it stands at 70% for Trump, 30% for Biden.

Although these figures will swing back to normal once the shock in the United States is over, it can indeed be expected that a second term for Trump is now more likely to be a possibility than a second term for Biden.

“Investors are going to be focusing more on a Trump trade, and if they’re not really sure, then they’re going to focus on what will likely benefit from either candidate,” says @StovallCFRA to @FrankCNBC pic.twitter.com/J0M6FfWOGZ

— Worldwide Exchange (@CNBCWEX) July 15, 2024

This means that the Trump trade is on. The Trump trade refers to the fact that taxes will be lowered, import tariffs will go up, inflation will go back up and that America will cut itself off from the world. Bad news for NATO and probably also for Ukraine.

As Trump is a big fan of crypto, investors have also been sending Bitcoin higher again since this weekend. They actually planned to do that in November, if Trump were to be elected, but given that the possibility of his presidency has grown exponentially since this weekend, they are already getting a head start on that ‘Trump trade’.

As world financial markets started to reopen after the attempted assassination of Donald Trump, one thing seemed likely:

The Trump trade will get even more momentum. 

Asian US Futures Up, Bitcoin Gains

Bitcoin Is Back Above $60k pic.twitter.com/jkYU5Ebubu

— D.A. Market Online Trading (@itradeph) July 15, 2024

Biden replacement

Be careful with Politifi memecoins such as Maga and Pepe. These will be volatile and could probably go higher in the coming months, but if Whales take their profits you will be left with a big short-term loss. Diversify if you can.

Also pay attention if Biden suddenly drops out of the race and is replaced by Kamala Harris or, for example, Gavin Newsom, the governor of California. Bitcoin will then probably drop a few percent in an instant.