Fed can’t start a Bitcoin XMas rally

Although the announcement of a lower interest rate pushed the Bitcoin price as high as $94,500 on Wednesday evening, it quickly fell again after the economists analysis was revealed. This is especially true in 2026.

The largest cryptocurrency briefly traded below $90,000 again on Thursday after Oracle’s market sentiment dragged down the entire tech sector. A Christmas rally for Bitcoin therefore seems highly uncertain.

At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for a price of $92,000.

Inflation

Meanwhile, the price of gold is at an all-time high, house prices in most Western countries are at an all-time high, most stocks are trading close to an all-time high, and US debt has never been higher. At the same time US inflation is approaching 4% again and lower interest rates don’t seem to be changing this too much. The market is uncertain and fears a correction for stock markets (and Bitcoin) is coming in 2026. Investors are reacting by spreading their risk across various investment opportunities.

Year to date

Bitcoin is currently trading at a minor loss for the year 2025, which is a first since 2022. If the largest digital currency does indeed end the year negatively, historically speaking it would mark the end of the bull run that began in November 2022 and (probably) ended in October 2025. If this is true, I do expect a drawdown in the first quarter of next year.

Note that a complete reversal by the Fed (for example, zero interest rates in the US) or any major geopolitical event could still change this forecast.