Ethena surges over 100% but data raises questions over ENA rally's continuation

Ethena has emerged as one of the most striking winners of the recent crypto rally. ENA has climbed from around $0.08 to a peak of roughly $0.17, briefly more than doubling in price. At the same time, trading volume, network usage and social media attention have all exploded. Yet several metrics suggest that part of this demand is already fading as the price stabilises.

ENA rally causes explosion in activity

According to data shared by Santiment, the number of active addresses during the rally has risen to nearly three times its earlier level. At the peak, around 2,990 addresses were active.

Trading volume has also reacted dramatically. Compared with the period before the breakout, it has risen almost twentyfold, with a spike to around $1.96 billion. Social media mentions have climbed from roughly 3 to 5 per day to a maximum of 50 to 60.

Sentiment has swung from strongly negative to mildly positive. Interest in Ethena is therefore visibly growing as ENA rises.

Not every indicator has held on to that move, however. Open interest expressed in ENA initially rose by several tens of percentage points, but according to Santiment it quickly returned towards its old level once the price began moving sideways.

Good news conspicuously coincides with price peaks

The timing of various announcements from Ethena is also striking. News involving Nasdaq, a fee switch with possible buybacks and Ethena Pay has repeatedly emerged around local price peaks.

That does not automatically mean Ethena is deliberately planning news around the price. Such developments usually require a great deal of preparation. The pattern does, however, show how quickly traders can absorb positive news during a strong rally.

Another key point is the proposed fee switch. According to the information provided, the amount of USDe must first rise above 7.5 billion before 5% of revenue can be directed towards buybacks.

USDe presents a major obstacle to buybacks

It is precisely this condition that makes the situation interesting. The Santiment chart shared shows a USDe supply of around 4.34 billion. To reach 7.5 billion, supply would need to grow by roughly 73% from that level.

Meanwhile, growth in the number of USDe holders is flattening out. The chart shows around 47,490 holders.

A potential conflict of interest could also emerge between ENA holders and users staking USDe. Money directed from revenue towards ENA buybacks cannot simultaneously be used for staker returns.

According to the analysis provided, the value of sUSDe has grown by around 3% this year, and only about a quarter of all USDe is currently staked. If all of it were staked, the yield could drop towards 1%, even before any buybacks are taken into account.

ENA’s price rally is therefore impressive, but the fundamental question now is whether Ethena can deliver enough sustained growth once the initial wave of speculative attention fades.