Catastrophic first quarter for Bitcoin ends with a 12% loss

With a global trade war about to erupt and US inflation on the rise, Bitcoin seems to be doing quite well this past quarter, down only around 12%. However, if we look at the past few years, we can see that this is the worst first quarter in 7 years. Is this a harbinger of things to come, or have we passed the post?

2017-2018

Three months ago, the digital currency markets were euphoric. Bitcoin had set a new all-time high ($109,000) in mid-December and there was optimism in the markets about what crypto could do under a new Trump administration.

However, as we close out the first quarter of 2025 and begin the second, most of that optimism has evaporated. Bitcoin fell by about 12% in the first quarter, worse than it has done in the last six years. The last time we saw a bigger loss was in 2018, when Bitcoin saw a price drop of about 50%.

That came just after the madness of late 2017, when the largest digital currency traded above $20,000 for the first time.

Pullback

However, compared to previous bull runs, which usually last a little over two years, the current pullback since the mid-December peak is still quite mild.

After the 2017-2018 bull run, there was a correction of as much as 80% since the peak, and in 2022 Bitcoin slid from a price of $50,000 all the way to $15,000.

If we make the comparison with those corrections, we are currently simply waiting for support until another leg up (which is what Arthur Hayes thinks) or waiting for the support line to break below (which is what Peter Brandt thinks will happen) and then aim for $65,000.

The second quarter should bring confirmation of the trend.