Bitcoin’s summertime sadness: what will happen in July and August?

This past Sunday, the meteorological summer kicked off, so it is probably a good idea to compare what Bitcoin did during the summer months of previous bear markets (those of 2022 and 2018), so that we know what to expect.

4 months

In both 2018 and 2022, during the previous ‘crypto winters’, Bitcoin went through a deep slump. By the end of June, we had already witnessed four negative and two positive months in both those years.

2026 looks set to follow a similar scenario, because unless Bitcoin quickly posts a gain of 13% or more in the coming week, June will also end negatively, just as happened in January, February, and May of this year.

In March and April, the turnaround seemed to have begun, and we saw a rise from $60,000 to as high as $85,000, but due to the sale of some Bitcoins by Strategy at the beginning of June, the negative outlook from the Fed, and the ongoing conflict between Iran and the United States, we will likely end on a low again this month.

The good news, however, is that those negative months of June in both 2018 and 2022 were followed by substantial gains (of 21% and 17% respectively) in July. This was followed by five months of further decline from approximately August to December.

If the previous bear markets are any indication, we will first go higher next month, only to then drift to a new bottom.