Bitcoin’s post-halving cycle claims we should bottom by end of September 2026

It is now clear that the ATH of October 2025 was the post-halving peak we historically always see about a year and a half after the April 2024 halving.

The halving means that the reward for miners is cut in half and Bitcoin becomes scarcer once again.

Although this is painful, given that we are down about 50% from that $125,000 price point, there are also bright spots.

History

First of all, Bitcoin’s price action appears far less irrational than previously thought. We have witnessed multiple halving events already and can conclude that the bull market lasts three years, while the bear market lasts about a year. In the long run, therefore, investors still come out ahead.

Less

Secondly, the drop of the Bitcoin price (so far) appears less severe than during the previous post-halving bear market. Back then, the leading digital currency fell by 70% or even 80% from its peak, whereas this time the decline has been only 50%. In 2022, the price plunged all the way to $16,000 following the collapse of FTX; this time, however, major crypto companies remain standing and the support level around $55,000-$60,000 seems to hold.

Bottom

If the pattern of previous years holds true then we are currently in the final months of the bear market, with a bottom typically forming by late September or early October of this year. If Wall Street aligns with this scenario, we could see a significant influx of new buyers in Q4.