Bitcoin Surges, but History Warns of Painful Fall After Bear Market Rally

Bitcoin is making an impressive comeback, but the current rise does not automatically mean the bottom is definitively behind us. Historical price action shows that BTC regularly rose by double digits during previous bear markets, only to fall sharply again afterwards. The current rally of more than 11% fits neatly into the pattern of earlier bear market rallies.

Strong Bitcoin rally is not automatically the end of the bear market

After Bitcoin’s sharp rise, optimism in the crypto market is building quickly. BTC has shot from around $64.000 towards $77.000, breaking several technical resistance levels on the way.

Yet crypto analyst Quinten François warns that a strong green move on its own says little about the definitive end of a bear market. He compares the current situation with three earlier periods in which Bitcoin also suddenly recovered sharply.

In April 2018, for example, Bitcoin rose by around 17%. Anyone who saw this move as the definitive bottom was proved wrong. After the rally, BTC eventually lost a further 60% before the true bottom was reached around $3.122.

A similar pattern appears in the chart shared by François for February 2022. Bitcoin recovered by around 10.5%, but subsequently fell another 63%.

Even a 40% rise proved not enough

Perhaps even more striking is the move from the summer of 2022. Between June and July, Bitcoin put in a rally of roughly 40%. That is a much bigger rise than the current move.

That also proved not to be a definitive reversal. From the local top, Bitcoin fell by around 37% according to the comparison, and the price eventually bottomed out around $15.479.

History therefore serves mainly as a warning for investors who immediately conclude, after a sharp rise, that a new bull market has begun. Bear markets seldom move in a straight line downwards. Interim rallies can be especially powerful.

Current situation does not have to repeat history

At the same time, the comparison does not mean Bitcoin must fall by tens of per cent again from its current level. The conditions in 2026 differ from those in 2018 and 2022, and historical price patterns offer no guarantee for the future.

The current rally is also showing clear strength. Bitcoin is breaking multiple resistance levels, and the rapid rise is causing large liquidations among short sellers.

The chart puts that euphoria into perspective. A rise of 11.5% is anything but exceptional during a bear market. Even a 40% rally in 2022 could not prevent Bitcoin from setting a new bottom later on. For bulls, the coming period will therefore be mainly about proving that this rally is more than just another temporary recovery.