Bitcoin Retests $80.000 as Key Levels Gauge True Market Bullishness

Bitcoin is trading around $79.600, once again just below the psychologically important $80.000 mark. According to analyst Quinten François, BTC has reclaimed several significant technical levels over the past few days. The market is now in a zone where the August monthly close in particular could say a lot about what comes next.

Bitcoin has reclaimed several key levels

According to the analysis, Bitcoin is back above the 200-day moving average around $69.200, the 200-day EMA around $72.000, and the 40-week SMA around $74.400.

The so-called True Market Mean around $75.700 has also been retaken. François says that level is important for the monthly close. As long as Bitcoin closes August above $75.700, he describes the technical picture as constructive.

The price is currently around $79.599, with a market capitalisation of roughly $1.6 trillion and a daily trading volume of more than $34 billion.

https://x.com/QuintenFrancois/status/2093305804543730026

The $79.700 to $83.000 zone is now decisive

The next test sits around $79.700, where the weekly Supertrend is running. Above that come the 50-week SMA around $81.800 and the 52-week SMA plus the 365-day moving average around $82.900.

According to the analysis, the average cost basis of ETF investors is also around $83.000. That makes this zone especially important.

François calls a monthly close above $79.700 bullish. A close above $83.000 would, in his view, be an extremely bullish signal.

On the downside, the first clear level is around $74.400. A monthly close below that would suggest the recent breakout may have failed. Below $72.000, he says the entire recovery would come under pressure again.

Major support lies much lower

If Bitcoin does pull back sharply, an important support zone sits around $63.000 to $64.000, where the 200-week SMA is located.

Much lower still is the realised price around $52.900. That level roughly reflects the average cost basis of all Bitcoin that has changed hands on chain.

For now, though, the focus is clearly above the current price. Bitcoin is less than 5% below the zone around $83.000. That is where it could become clear whether the recent rally is mainly a bounce within a larger downtrend, or the start of a much stronger trend reversal.