Bitcoin Must Break $83.000 Before $100.000 Comes Into View

Bitcoin’s price remains strong, but the bear market is not definitively over from a technical standpoint, according to analyst Ted Pillows. BTC continues to make lower highs over the longer term. That picture could change if Bitcoin manages to break above $83.000. At the same time, the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100.000 this year has jumped to 30% on prediction market Kalshi.

$83.000 becomes the crucial level

Bitcoin is currently trading around $77.800, moving ever closer to a technically significant area. According to Ted Pillows, the longer-term structure remains bearish as long as BTC keeps making lower highs.

A breakout above $83.000 would break that pattern. According to the analyst, that could be a clear signal that the bear market is drawing to a close.

The chart shows clearly why that level is important. Previous rallies stalled before Bitcoin could form a new higher high. The current rally is now bringing BTC back close to that tipping point.

Chance of $100.000 rises to 30%

Traders on Kalshi are also responding to the strong momentum. The market now puts the probability of Bitcoin reaching $100.000 before January 2027 at 30%.

That probability has risen sharply recently. This does not mean Kalshi itself is making a prediction, but rather that traders are willing to pay higher prices for the scenario in which Bitcoin reaches six figures this year.

For Bitcoin, however, the road there is far from clear. From around $77.800, a rise of just over 6% is needed first to reach $83.000. After that, BTC would still need to climb roughly 20% to touch $100.000.

The market is therefore at an interesting point. The rally is strong enough to make the bullish scenario credible, but technically Bitcoin must first prove that it can break through the last major lower high. As long as $83.000 is not convincingly reclaimed, another rejection remains possible.