AI Bubble and a Bitcoin bear market, third quarter will bring volatility

While the first half of the year was dominated by a very strong US dollar and rising share prices for companies involved in AI-related business, analysts believe the third and fourth quarters will focus more on efficiency, meaning investors will become more cautious and want to see whether AI companies can actually turn a profit.

It remains to be seen whether this is good or bad for Bitcoin, but the vast majority of analysts believe we have not yet seen the crypto market bottom. At the time of writing, Bitcoin is trading for $61,300.

Volatility

Traditional stock markets remained largely stable but the volatility seen primarily in crypto markets in recent years has clearly shifted to technology stocks in 2026. However, as most AI companies still fail to report actual profits, investor caution will become increasingly important as the year progresses.

Consequently, analysts hold a rather negative outlook for the remainder of the year. Furthermore, it seems highly likely that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates in the coming months.

Therefore, after the summer, Bitcoin is expected to form a multi-year bottom around the $50,000 to $54,000 price level (late September/October 2026), from which it can gradually begin a new bull run.